analyze the market of dragon pig market
to accurately predict market next year of the pig city, this is a very difficult thing, because there are too many factors affecting pigs stock market: including economic environment, the government's policy guidance, disease and accidents, environmental protection units, product inventory, taxation, bank loans, price subsidies, subsidies, collection and storage reservoir, large area of breeding pigs (living), other products can substitute for the output of pork, the world trade environment, even the nature of meteorology, earthquake, war and peace of the world, and so on can affect the live pig market prices. there are many uncertainties. relatively uncertain factors is the breeding stock, including existing numerous sow breeding stock, pigs are intentional state, as well as the regularity of the 'pig cycle change, so the predicted a dragon only from these changes is relatively certain factors to predict and actual market still has a lot of variable factors. let me give you my personal opinion.
factors affecting the price of pig in the year of the dragon:
1) unfavorable factors for pork price increase:
a, the global economic situation is complicated, the european debt crisis deepening, avoid waste money demand and low recovery in the u.s. economy to promote the dollar index uplink, commodities including pigs may access to long-term decline.
b, 'controlling inflation' is still an important part of government work for some time to come.
c. the increase of pig supply. due to the good rabbit swine city, combined with national policy influence, in the second half of the pig bar deposits and sow bar stock is rising fast, in november 2011 (ministry of agriculture statistics) pig amount of 49.05 million head 476.25 million head, numerous sows. the piggy bank now has more than 09, 10 years, and the pig may have reached the top of the past. of course, it is not ruled out that many sows can be used to subsidize multiple newspapers.
d, advance - step import. china will import 1.4 million tons of pork in 2012, an increase of 400,000 tons over the year of the rabbit.
e, 'pig cycle' will enter the lower slope.
f, other factors... .. uncertainty... ..
2) can drive the price of pork:
people's living standards have been raised. in recent years, per capita consumption of pork has increased by two to three kilograms. so it's more than 20 million.
b. the demand for pork increases with increasing population.
because of the blight, market instability and wage increases, some retail investors have given up raising pigs to quit the market.
d, some farmers are not very active in the patch, and think that the risk of the pig's decline in 12 years will be reduced or recuperated.
e, other factors... ... uncertainty... ..
prediction of pig price:
1) the price fluctuation of the dragon year will not be too big, it will fluctuate between 7 and 9 yuan, and it will fall by 2 yuan, about 1 yuan less than the year of the rabbit. the average annual pig grain price is around 6.5, highlighting a stable word.
the year of the dragon is a profitable year. (rabbit dragon is profitable for two years).
3) the trend of high v and low, or low, high v.
4) every profit is less than the year of the rabbit, 200--300 yuan less, about half the year of the rabbit, but it is still a fat year for pig farmers.
5) the position of pig price in "pig cycle" : enter the "pig cycle".
6) four quarterly changes of pig price:
(1-3 months) in the first quarter prices from high low, is the spring festival in january this year two buckets, prices could remain in the present 9 yuan, early february (in the first month and a half) could be a turning point, into the steady decline in channel.
the second quarter (4 -- june) should be the trough of the year, the lowest monthly average price will not cross 7 yuan/jin, without losing money.
the third quarter (july - september) came out of the trough. the price of the pig was higher than the peak of the year, but the price of the pig was hard to break at the beginning of the year.
in the fourth quarter (october -- december), a small valley will still be held in october, and the year of the year will be running at a higher price. |
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